ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

BFH // Bread Financial Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001101215 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$107.16 ▲ +3.75 (+3.63%)
MKT CAP: $3.93B • VOL: 586.3K
BFH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C- (RQD 61) -> D+ (RQD 57)
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
57 / 100 -4D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 80% • VS 200D +12.1% • RSI 50.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +22% • P/E 6.5x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.06 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.47
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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BFH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.24%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $105.7H $107.2L $103.4C $107.2VOL 613.6K
RES: $108.5SUP: $95.44SMA50: $103.7SMA200: $92.25
$117.7$104.6$91.43$78.29$65.15RES $108.5SUP $95.44$107.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
BFH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Bread Financial Holdings Inc. (BFH) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 6.4% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 12.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 56.3% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +12.1% paired with 22.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +12.1% // FCF YLD: 22.00%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.48 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.48 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 7.7x trailing P/E (6.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 7.7x // EV/EBITDA: 12.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $107.16 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 46.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 46.1% // D/E: 2.44x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.12).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 7.7x
FORWARD P/E 6.5x
EV / EBITDA 12.6x
FCF YIELD 22.00%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 56.3%
NET MARGIN 46.1%
ROIC % 6.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +12.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $13.65
DEBT / EQUITY 2.44x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.12
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BFHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $98.05
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>