ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

BLDR // Builders FirstSource Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001316835 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • RETAIL: Building Materials
$64.91 ▲ +1.85 (+2.93%)
MKT CAP: $6.79B • VOL: 4.74M
BLDR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 60/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
60 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF -42.8% vs NI -59.6% • ROIC-WACC +0.4% • Z 2.34
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 16% • VS 200D -20.7% • RSI 62.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +12.6% • P/E 14.5x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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BLDR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.99%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-02O $55.88H $64.91L $55.88C $64.91VOL 5.72M
RES: $64.56SUP: $45.52SMA50: $58.98SMA200: $79.56
$117.4$99.08$80.71$62.34$43.97RES $64.56SUP $45.52$64.912026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
BLDR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 41/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) exhibits 30.4% gross margins and 8.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (RETAIL: Building Materials), balanced against a 8.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 30.4% gross profitability converts into 5.2% operating margin and 8.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.8% // GM: 30.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -7.4% paired with 12.58% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -7.4% // FCF YLD: 12.58%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.34 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.34 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 15.6x trailing P/E (14.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 15.6x // EV/EBITDA: 8.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $64.91 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in RETAIL: Building Materials require continuous execution to defend 2.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.9% // D/E: 0.66x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 14.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.12).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 15.6x
FORWARD P/E 14.5x
EV / EBITDA 8.7x
FCF YIELD 12.58%
GROSS MARGIN 30.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 5.2%
NET MARGIN 2.9%
ROIC % 8.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -7.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.04
DEBT / EQUITY 0.66x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.12
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BLDRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $59.39
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>