ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CMC // Commercial Metals Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000022444 ↗
Materials • Steel/Iron Ore
$65.86 ▲ +1.88 (+2.94%)
MKT CAP: $7.04B • VOL: 1.45M
CMC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (-2 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
46 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -45.7% vs NI -82.6% • ROIC-WACC -6.7% • Z 2.4
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 28% • VS 200D -7.3% • RSI 47.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 8 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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CMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.79%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $65.70H $65.86L $63.98C $65.86VOL 834.2K
RES: $68.30SUP: $57.29SMA50: $65.35SMA200: $68.99
$81.31$75.52$69.74$63.95$58.16RES $68.30SUP $57.29$65.862026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
CMC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 1.5% return on invested capital within Materials (Steel/Iron Ore), balanced against a 18.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 5.1% operating margin and 1.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of 0.0% paired with 4.32% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: 0.0% // FCF YLD: 4.32%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.40 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.40 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 85.3x trailing P/E (79.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 85.3x // EV/EBITDA: 18.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $65.86 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Steel/Iron Ore require continuous execution to defend 4.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.2% // D/E: 0.48x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 79.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.95).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 85.3x
FORWARD P/E 79.3x
EV / EBITDA 18.4x
FCF YIELD 4.32%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 5.1%
NET MARGIN 4.2%
ROIC % 1.5%
REV GROWTH YOY 0.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.77
DEBT / EQUITY 0.48x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.13%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 47.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.95
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CMCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $60.26
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>