ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CMS // CMS Energy Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000811156 ↗
Utilities • Power Generation
$70.10 ▲ +0.58 (+0.83%)
MKT CAP: $21.99B • VOL: 4.81M
CMS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // D+ (RQD 58) -> C- (RQD 60)
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
60 / 100 +2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -8.8% vs NI +6.8% • ROIC-WACC -1% • Z 1.12
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 43% • VS 200D -3.4% • RSI 62.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +8.5% • P/E 17.1x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CMS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.39%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $69.52H $70.10L $69.52C $70.10VOL 4.81M
RES: $70.53SUP: $60.16SMA50: $66.85SMA200: $72.55
$80.03$75.22$70.41$65.61$60.80RES $70.53SUP $60.16$70.102026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
CMS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 5.2% return on invested capital within Utilities (Power Generation), balanced against a 19.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 20.8% operating margin and 5.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.5% paired with 8.54% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.5% // FCF YLD: 8.54%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.12 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.12 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 20.4x trailing P/E (17.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 20.4x // EV/EBITDA: 19.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $70.10 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Power Generation require continuous execution to defend 12.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.9% // D/E: 1.95x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.73).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 20.4x
FORWARD P/E 17.1x
EV / EBITDA 19.1x
FCF YIELD 8.54%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 20.8%
NET MARGIN 12.9%
ROIC % 5.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.41
DEBT / EQUITY 1.95x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.40%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.73
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CMSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $64.14
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>