ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CWST // Casella Waste Systems Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000911177 ↗
Utilities • Environmental Services
$93.33 ▲ +3.02 (+3.34%)
MKT CAP: $5.75B • VOL: 535.0K
CWST // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
57 / 100 +1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +8.4% vs NI -41.9% • ROIC-WACC -4.8% • Z 2.77
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 48% • VS 200D +0.4% • RSI 51.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.16 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.05
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CWST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.02%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $88.53H $93.33L $88.53C $93.33VOL 528.2K
RES: $98.20SUP: $71.69SMA50: $88.63SMA200: $89.94
$103.2$95.98$88.75$81.52$74.29RES $98.20SUP $71.69$93.332026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
CWST // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) exhibits 33.8% gross margins and 2.4% return on invested capital within Utilities (Environmental Services), balanced against a 23.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 33.8% gross profitability converts into 3.5% operating margin and 2.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.4% // GM: 33.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +18.0% paired with 1.47% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +18.0% // FCF YLD: 1.47%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.77 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.77 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 23.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $93.33 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Environmental Services require continuous execution to defend 0.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.4% // D/E: 0.42x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.63).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 23.1x
FCF YIELD 1.47%
GROSS MARGIN 33.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 3.5%
NET MARGIN 0.4%
ROIC % 2.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +18.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.42x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.40%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.63
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CWSTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $85.40
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>