ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ESTC // Elastic N.V.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001707753 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$91.34 ▼ -5.94 (-6.11%)
MKT CAP: $10.31B • VOL: 2.43M
ESTC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C+ (RQD 66) -> C (RQD 62)
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
62 / 100 -4D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +22.9% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC -11.1% • Z 4.38
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 84% • VS 200D +43.7% • RSI 49.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did ESTC's Macro Regime Fit & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ESTC is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ESTC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +80.30%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $103.3H $103.3L $91.34C $91.34VOL 1.49M
RES: $107.4SUP: $69.26SMA50: $93.35SMA200: $67.69
$112.2$94.70$77.18$59.65$42.12RES $107.4SUP $69.26$91.342026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
ESTC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) exhibits 76.1% gross margins and -3.0% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 29.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 76.1% gross profitability converts into -1.9% operating margin and -3.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -3.0% // GM: 76.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +17.3% paired with 2.94% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +17.3% // FCF YLD: 2.94%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.38 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.38 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 29.8x trailing P/E (25.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 29.8x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $91.34 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 21.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 21.1% // D/E: 0.87x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 25.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.19).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 29.8x
FORWARD P/E 25.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 2.94%
GROSS MARGIN 76.1%
OPERATING MARGIN -1.9%
NET MARGIN 21.1%
ROIC % -3.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +17.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.47
DEBT / EQUITY 0.87x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.19
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ESTCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $83.58
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ESTC & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>