ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

HP // Helmerich & Payne Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000046765 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$38.84 ▼ -4.15 (-9.65%)
MKT CAP: $3.88B • VOL: 1.30M
HP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 62/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
62 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -38.5% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -8% • Z 2.05
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 78% • VS 200D +14.7% • RSI 62.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.19 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.32
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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HP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.48%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $42.99H $42.99L $38.84C $38.84VOL 1.30M
RES: $52.08SUP: $36.48SMA50: $40.74SMA200: $37.50
$49.57$43.77$37.96$32.15$26.35RES $52.08SUP $36.48$38.842026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
HP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 0.1% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 16.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 0.1% operating margin and 0.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 0.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +34.0% paired with 2.81% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +34.0% // FCF YLD: 2.81%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.05 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.05 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (18.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 16.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $38.84 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend -4.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -4.4% // D/E: 0.60x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.00).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 18.0x
EV / EBITDA 16.2x
FCF YIELD 2.81%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 0.1%
NET MARGIN -4.4%
ROIC % 0.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +34.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-1.64
DEBT / EQUITY 0.60x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.42%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.00
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // HPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $35.54
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>