ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

IBIT // iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT →
ETF / Index • Spot Bitcoin Institutional Trust • SIC 6726
$43.36 ▼ -0.43 (-0.94%)
MKT CAP: $52.00B • VOL: 119.48M
IBIT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim (ETF Composite Methodology)
01 200D/50D REGIME TAPE
ETF Trend & Breadth
15 / 20
SOLID
VS 200D +4.8% • 52W POS 37% • 50D/200D BULL
02 CONSOLIDATED ETF TAPE
ETF Liquidity & Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
AUM ~$52B • DAILY VOL $5181M • 1D -0.94%
03 14D RSI & 50D SLOPE
Momentum & RSI Regime
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.04 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.36
05 52W DRAWDOWN & BETA
Drawdown Containment
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IBIT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.49%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $43.79H $43.79L $43.36C $43.36VOL 119.48M
RES: $54.37SUP: $39.42SMA50: $45.86SMA200: $41.38
$54.63$48.72$42.82$36.91$31.01RES $54.37SUP $39.42$43.362026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
IBIT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 14.0% return on invested capital within ETF / Index (Spot Bitcoin Institutional Trust), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $43.36 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Spot Bitcoin Institutional Trust require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % —
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.30%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 36.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // IBITPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $39.68
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>