INIO // INNIO N.V.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002109150 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Metal Fabrications

$16.30 ▼ -1.22 (-6.96%)

MKT CAP: $13.14B • VOL: 7.96M

52W L $15 52W H $43

ALTMAN Z

2.91 GREY

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

INIO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 47/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-02

ROARABLE D

RQD CONFIDENCE

47 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

12 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +12.4% • Z 2.91

02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

7 / 20

WARNING

52W RANGE 10% • VS 200D -29.8% • RSI 48.5

03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

13 / 20

SOLID

FCF YIELD +2.2% • P/E 27.6x • F-SCORE 7/9

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON INIO)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (96/100)SIFTER 05 // TRUE NET LIQUIDITY BETA

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +6.10σ

Macro Tailwind Hits 96/100 Despite True Net Liquidity Falling -0.64% to $5,746B

TRUE NET LIQUIDITY

$5,746B (-0.64% 4W)

NET LIQUIDITY ELASTICITY

6.00x BETA (r=-0.30)

MACRO TAILWIND SCORE

96 / 100

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // FRED WALCL - TGA - RRP × 5Y BETA]

FRED Fed Assets (WALCL)US Treasury TGA (WTREGEN) + ON RRPICE BofA High-Yield OAS + 5Y Equity Beta

Federal Reserve and Treasury liquidity metrics show True Net Liquidity at $5,746B following a -0.64% 4-week contraction alongside a 2 bps widening in ICE BofA High-Yield OAS. Despite this liquidity headwind, the quantitative framework flags an anomalous z-score of 6.1 and a Macro Tailwind Score of 96 / 100. This setup reflects an extreme Net Liquidity Elasticity of 6.00x Beta against a negative correlation of r=-0.30, indicating amplified sensitivity for INIO positioning.

INIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -51.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $18.35H $18.35L $16.30C $16.30VOL 8.80M

RES: $18.16SUP: $13.76SMA50: $18.90SMA200: $24.96

INIO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 62/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

INNIO N.V. (INIO) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 18.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Metal Fabrications), balanced against a 23.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 13.9% operating margin and 18.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 18.6% // GM: 45.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +19.8% paired with 2.21% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +19.8% // FCF YLD: 2.21%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.91 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.91 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 32.8x trailing P/E (27.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 32.8x // EV/EBITDA: 23.1x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $16.30 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Fabrications require continuous execution to defend 10.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.9% // D/E: 8.50x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 27.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.93).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 32.8x

FORWARD P/E 27.6x

EV / EBITDA 23.1x

FCF YIELD 2.21%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN 13.9%

NET MARGIN 10.9%

ROIC % 18.6%

REV GROWTH YOY +19.8%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.53

DEBT / EQUITY 8.50x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 48.5

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.93

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // INIOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $14.92

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for INIO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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