ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

LI // Li Auto Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001791706 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Auto Manufacturing
$11.03 ▼ -0.11 (-0.99%)
MKT CAP: $10.89B • VOL: 1.88M
LI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 18/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
18 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
2 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -120% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC -11.7% • Z 1.78
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
5 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 5% • VS 200D -24.6% • RSI 44.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
6 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.01 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.18
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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LI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.31%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $11.39H $11.39L $11.03C $11.03VOL 2.50M
RES: $11.85SUP: $9.66SMA50: $11.60SMA200: $14.77
$21.08$18.26$15.43$12.61$9.78RES $11.85SUP $9.66$11.032026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
LI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Li Auto Inc. (LI) exhibits 18.7% gross margins and -2.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Auto Manufacturing), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 18.7% gross profitability converts into -0.5% operating margin and -2.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -2.1% // GM: 18.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -18.8% paired with -17.95% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -18.8% // FCF YLD: -17.95%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.78 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.78 // F-SCORE: 2/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (33.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $11.03 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Auto Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend -0.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -0.4% // D/E: 0.05x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 33.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.97).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 33.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -17.95%
GROSS MARGIN 18.7%
OPERATING MARGIN -0.5%
NET MARGIN -0.4%
ROIC % -2.1%
REV GROWTH YOY -18.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.06
DEBT / EQUITY 0.05x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.97
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $10.09
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>