LLY // Eli Lilly and Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000059478 ↗

Health Care • Biopharmaceuticals, GLP-1/GIP Cardiometabolic & Oncology • SIC 2834

$1,417.54 ▲ +43.84 (+3.19%)

MKT CAP: $1.29T • VOL: 5.25M

52W L $232 52W H $1,450

ALTMAN Z

9.29 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

LLY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 72/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-02

ROARABLE B

RQD CONFIDENCE

72 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

19 / 20

STRONG

FCF +90.7% vs NI +94.9% • ROIC-WACC +26.1% • Z 9.29

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

14 / 20

SOLID

NET GEX +70% • CALL SWEEP 45% • P/C 1.48

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

14 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.11 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.14

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON LLY)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // INVERSE SUIT SIGNAL (CONTRARIAN BUY)SIFTER 04 // CONTRARIAN ANALYST SUITSCORE™

SEVERITY: 87/100 Z-SCORE: +2.80σ

Bottom-Decile Suit (34.5% Hit Rate) Cautious on LLY Despite 19/20 WSG Forensic Fundamentals

INVERSE ANALYST ACCURACY

34.5% (Barclays)

WSG FUNDAMENTAL SCORE

19/20 PTS (ROIC 32.4%)

SKEPTICAL STREET CALLS

5 HOLD/SELL DESKS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SELL-SIDE HIT RATE × XBRL FUNDAMENTALS]

Wall Street Analyst Backtest Ledger5Y Forward Return Alpha vs SPYWSG XBRL Fundamental Engine

SuitScore™ historical backtesting flagged Barclays (34.5% 1-year batting average; Grade F) maintaining a UNDERPERFORM ($1473 target) alongside 5 cautious/neutral sell-side desks on Eli Lilly and Company (LLY). Meanwhile, LLY scores 19/20 on deterministic WSG Forensic Fundamentals with 32.4% ROIC and 9.29 Altman Z-Score. Historically, bottom-quartile analyst skepticism against top-decile XBRL cash compounders marks high-probability contrarian accumulation windows.

LLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +49.46%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-02O $1,288.3H $1,417.5L $1,288.3C $1,417.5VOL 4.37M

RES: $1,371.9SMA50: $1,095.6SMA200: $792.3

LLY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 81/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

LLY is executing an exceptional cardiometabolic volume cycle, delivering 45.5% YoY revenue growth, 83.6% Gross Margin, and 32.4% ROIC, which fully backs its $1.34T market capitalization. While valuation sits elevated at 36.6x EV/EBITDA and 48.6x trailing P/E, forward earnings power compresses the multiple to 26.3x Forward P/E against pristine balance sheet quality reflected in a 9.33 Altman Z-Score and 9/9 Piotroski F-Score. Risk-reward remains skewed to the upside with street consensus targeting $1689.78 (19.2% implied upside), though tactical entry requires discipline given an overextended RSI-14 of 77.9.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Tier-1 Profitability and Compounding Free Cash Flow Conversion

Incretin franchise scaling drove Gross Margin to 83.6% and Operating Margin to 40.2%, expanding TTM Diluted EPS to $30.81. Quarterly FCF generation surged to $11.40B in Q3 2026, pushing FY 2025 FCF to $16.81B and sustaining an elite Return on Invested Capital of 32.4%.

GROSS MARGIN: 83.6% | ROIC: 32.4% | FCF: $11.40B (Q3 2026)

02. Hyperbolic Top-Line Acceleration and Operating Leverage

Revenue expanded 45.5% YoY to reach $24.40B in Q3 2026 (up 38.6% YoY) following 47.7% growth in Q2 2026, demonstrating sustained GLP-1/GIP market share capture and pricing leverage across wholesale channels.

REV YOY: 45.5% | Q3 2026 REV: $24.40B | Q2 2026 ROIC: 36.6%

03. Fortress Financial Quality Backstopping Reinvestment Runway

The business exhibits perfect operational and accounting quality with an Altman Z-Score of 9.33 and a maximum Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, allowing LLY to self-fund aggressive R&D scaling ($4.25B in Q3 2026, $13.34B in FY 2025) while absorbing $49.50B in debt.

ALTMAN Z: 9.33 | PIOTROSKI: 9/9 | R&D: $13.34B (FY 2025)

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Extreme Technical Extension and Options Downside Skew

Momentum is tactical stretched with RSI-14 at 77.9, trading $220.40 above its 50D SMA of $1197.14 and far above its 200D SMA of $1091.24. An elevated Put/Call Ratio of 1.48 and Max Pain Strike at $1200.00 signal strong institutional tail-risk hedging and gap-fill exposure.

RSI-14: 77.9 | 50D SMA: $1197.14 | PUT/CALL: 1.48 | MAX PAIN: $1200.00

02. Elevated Absolute Multiples and Compressed FCF Yield Cushion

At 36.6x EV/EBITDA, 48.6x trailing P/E, and an FCF Yield of just 2.29%, valuation offers minimal cushion against execution missteps or supply bottleneck delays via key sterile fill-finish CDMO partners (48% exposure to CTLT).

EV/EBITDA: 36.6x | P/E: 48.6x | FCF YIELD: 2.29%

03. Distributor and PBM Counterparty Concentration Risk

Revenues are intensely concentrated through the Big 3 US Wholesalers (McKesson at 84% exposure) and top PBMs (55% exposure to OptumRx, CVS Caremark, and Cigna), creating vulnerability to formulary shifts, gross-to-net rebate concessions, and wholesaler de-stocking.

WHOLESALER EXP: 84% (MCK) | PBM EXP: 55% (UNH) | DEBT/EQUITY: 1.23x

KEY CATALYST // Q4 2026 earnings release and next-gen cardiometabolic pipeline readouts; the options market prices a 6.8% implied move against a Street Mean Price Target of $1689.78, where margin maintenance above 40% OpM is required to validate forward multiple re-rating.

MACRO REGIME // LLY functions as a low-beta asset (Beta 0.51) but carries systematic rate and inflation factor sensitivity: Pearson r=-0.18 vs Headline CPI (CPIAUCSL) and r=-0.16 vs Core CPI (CPILFESL) dictate that a +1.0% CPI expansion yields -6.94% and -11.47% return elasticity respectively. High-yield credit spread widening (BAMLH0A0HYM2 r=-0.14) and equity volatility shocks (VIXCLS r=-0.23, where +5.0 pts cuts returns by -1.68%) remain key tactical headwinds for its 36.6x EV/EBITDA multiple.

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)	BUY	$314.3M
Jonsson Patrik	SELL	$7.6M
Zakrowski Donald A	SELL	$2.4M
Hakim Anat	SELL	$6.0M

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$1,450 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$947.0K
$1,400 (2026-11-06)	PUT	$899.3K
$1,340 (2026-11-20)	PUT	$601.2K
$1,480 (2026-12-04)	CALL	$942.3K

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 48.4x

FORWARD P/E 30.6x

EV / EBITDA 36.4x

FCF YIELD 2.30%

GROSS MARGIN 83.6%

OPERATING MARGIN 40.2%

NET MARGIN 31.9%

ROIC % 32.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +45.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $30.81

DEBT / EQUITY 1.23x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.49%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 66.6

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.51

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.23 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.23, R² = 5.3% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -1.68% weekly return elasticity on LLY.

CPIAUCSL // Consumer Price Index: Headline All Items (CPI-U) -0.18 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.18, R² = 3.4% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in CPIAUCSL historically maps to -6.94% weekly return elasticity on LLY.

CPILFESL // Core Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy -0.16 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.16, R² = 2.7% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in CPILFESL historically maps to -11.47% weekly return elasticity on LLY.

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) -0.14 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.14, R² = 2.1% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -2.26% weekly return elasticity on LLY.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LLYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

39/100MODERATE VARIANCE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.14 r

Latest: 3.26%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-1.90%

Implied Px: $1,390.54

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE