ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

LUV // Southwest Airlines Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000092380 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Air Freight/Delivery Services
$42.43 ▼ -1.25 (-2.86%)
MKT CAP: $21.39B • VOL: 4.05M
LUV // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +174.8% vs NI -5.2% • ROIC-WACC -4.7% • Z 2.51
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 56% • VS 200D +0.5% • RSI 59.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 8 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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LUV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.64%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-02O $43.47H $43.68L $42.43C $42.43VOL 4.71M
RES: $44.08SUP: $38.77SMA50: $40.87SMA200: $43.46
$54.24$49.63$45.02$40.41$35.80RES $44.08SUP $38.77$42.432026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
LUV // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 37/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 3.2% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Air Freight/Delivery Services), balanced against a 16.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 1.5% operating margin and 3.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +2.1% paired with 2.71% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +2.1% // FCF YLD: 2.71%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.51 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.51 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 48.5x trailing P/E (45.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 48.5x // EV/EBITDA: 16.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $42.43 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Air Freight/Delivery Services require continuous execution to defend 1.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.6% // D/E: 0.73x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 45.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.01).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 48.5x
FORWARD P/E 45.1x
EV / EBITDA 16.0x
FCF YIELD 2.71%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 1.5%
NET MARGIN 1.6%
ROIC % 3.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +2.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.90
DEBT / EQUITY 0.73x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.87%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.01
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LUVPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $38.82
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>