ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MP // MP Materials Corp.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001801368 ↗
Materials • Metal Mining
$39.57 ▼ -2.07 (-4.97%)
MKT CAP: $7.42B • VOL: 5.32M
MP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 31/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
31 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -89.6% vs NI -31.3% • ROIC-WACC -15.4% • Z 3.62
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 11% • VS 200D -24.2% • RSI 46.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 10 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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MP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -40.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $41.06H $41.64L $39.57C $39.57VOL 4.53M
RES: $53.30SUP: $37.03SMA50: $47.26SMA200: $54.95
$79.58$68.07$56.56$45.05$33.54RES $53.30SUP $37.03$39.572026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
MP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 39/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MP Materials Corp. (MP) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -6.8% return on invested capital within Materials (Metal Mining), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -6.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -6.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.1% paired with -4.42% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.1% // FCF YLD: -4.42%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.62 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.62 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (35.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $39.57 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Mining require continuous execution to defend -38.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -38.3% // D/E: 0.47x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 35.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.07).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 35.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -4.42%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -38.3%
ROIC % -6.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +10.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.48
DEBT / EQUITY 0.47x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.07
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $36.21
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MP & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>