ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NTRA // Natera Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001604821 ↗
Health Care • Medical Specialities
$378.92 ▼ -35.38 (-8.54%)
MKT CAP: $59.72B • VOL: 2.63M
NTRA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // B- (RQD 70) -> C+ (RQD 68)
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +57.6% vs NI -9.3% • ROIC-WACC -14.5% • Z 26
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 91% • VS 200D +54% • RSI 53.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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NTRA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +79.11%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $436.0H $436.0L $378.9C $378.9VOL 2.43M
RES: $485.7SUP: $335.3SMA50: $382.9SMA200: $269.0
$455.1$381.8$308.6$235.3$162.1RES $485.7SUP $335.3$378.92026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
NTRA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Natera Inc. (NTRA) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -4.9% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical Specialities), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -13.4% operating margin and -4.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -4.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +35.9% paired with 0.17% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +35.9% // FCF YLD: 0.17%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 26.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 26.00 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (18.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $378.92 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical Specialities require continuous execution to defend -9.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -9.0% // D/E: 0.17x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.09).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 18.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 0.17%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -13.4%
NET MARGIN -9.0%
ROIC % -4.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +35.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-1.44
DEBT / EQUITY 0.17x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.09
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NTRAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $346.72
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>