ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

OESX // Orion Energy Systems Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001409375 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Building Products
$20.54 ▲ +0.14 (+0.71%)
MKT CAP: $83.4M • VOL: 24.8K
OESX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // D- (RQD 36) -> E (RQD 30)
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
30 / 100 -6D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 52% • VS 200D +36.1% • RSI 32.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.01 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.08
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
8 / 20
WARNING
20 BASE - 12 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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OESX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +124.48%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $20.00H $20.54L $20.00C $20.54VOL 9.4K
RES: $40.36SUP: $20.22SMA50: $25.41SMA200: $14.99
$33.26$26.57$19.88$13.19$6.50RES $40.36SUP $20.22$20.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
OESX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 37/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Orion Energy Systems Inc. (OESX) exhibits 32.6% gross margins and -8.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Building Products), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 32.6% gross profitability converts into -1.9% operating margin and -8.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -8.0% // GM: 32.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.3% paired with -1.39% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.3% // FCF YLD: -1.39%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.20 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.20 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $20.54 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Building Products require continuous execution to defend -3.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -3.7% // D/E: 0.76x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -1.39%
GROSS MARGIN 32.6%
OPERATING MARGIN -1.9%
NET MARGIN -3.7%
ROIC % -8.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.76x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 32.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // OESXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $18.79
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for OESX & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>