PLTR // Palantir Technologies Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001321655 ↗

Technology • Enterprise AI Ontology & Defense Software • SIC 7372

$184.11 ▼ -12.31 (-6.27%)

MKT CAP: $471.81B • VOL: 27.07M

52W L $6 52W H $213

ALTMAN Z

17.06 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

PLTR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 72/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-02

ROARABLE B

RQD CONFIDENCE

72 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

19 / 20

STRONG

FCF +84.1% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +11.9% • Z 17.06

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

17 / 20

STRONG

NET GEX +66% • CALL SWEEP 84% • P/C 1.23

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

15 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.01 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.36

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (2 ACTIVE ON PLTR)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // UNANNOUNCED GOVT CONTRACT CATALYSTSIFTER 07 // FEDERAL PRIME AWARD CATALYST

SEVERITY: 96/100 Z-SCORE: +4.60σ

PLTR Awarded $637.6M Department of Defense Prime Contract (30.75% of Annual Revenue Across 5 Obligations)

TOP FEDERAL AWARD

$637.6M (W9128Z26FA001)

TOTAL OBLIGATED / TTM REV

$1.38B (30.75% REV)

AWARDING AGENCY

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // USASPENDING.GOV × TTM XBRL REVENUE]

USASpending.gov Prime Award APISAM.gov / CIK Entity MatcherSEC XBRL Trailing 12M Revenue

Live USASpending.gov procurement records show PALANTIR USG INC (PLTR) secured Award W9128Z26FA001 for $637.6M from the Department of Defense (CDAO MSS TASK ORDER OFF OF CONTRACT W519TC25D0039). Across 5 prime federal task orders, obligated awards total $1.38B—representing 30.75% of PLTR's $4.48B trailing 12-month SEC XBRL revenue. Federal ledger obligations frequently post days ahead of sell-side backlog revisions.

▲ BULLISH // INVERSE SUIT SIGNAL (CONTRARIAN BUY)SIFTER 04 // CONTRARIAN ANALYST SUITSCORE™

SEVERITY: 86/100 Z-SCORE: +2.80σ

Bottom-Decile Suit (34.9% Hit Rate) Cautious on PLTR Despite 19/20 WSG Forensic Fundamentals

INVERSE ANALYST ACCURACY

34.9% (Barclays)

WSG FUNDAMENTAL SCORE

19/20 PTS (ROIC 26.9%)

SKEPTICAL STREET CALLS

10 HOLD/SELL DESKS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SELL-SIDE HIT RATE × XBRL FUNDAMENTALS]

Wall Street Analyst Backtest Ledger5Y Forward Return Alpha vs SPYWSG XBRL Fundamental Engine

Multi-feed institutional triangulation brief redacted on server pending verified B-Unit credential. Complete 1-step email verification to unblur full forensic evidence, cross-feed divergences, and Z-score attribution.

[LOCKED FORENSIC BRIEF] ENTER EMAIL IN ROARABLE RATING BAR ABOVE TO UNBLUR ALL PLTR CROSS-FEED NOTES UNBLUR BRIEF <GO>

PLTR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +33.61%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-11-02O $196.8H $196.8L $184.1C $184.1VOL 20.10M

RES: $223.5SUP: $206.9SMA50: $157.7SMA200: $82.60

PLTR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Palantir exhibits best-in-class operating leverage with Gross Margin expanding to 84.8%, ROIC reaching 26.9%, and zero funded debt (0.00x Debt-to-Equity, 17.06 Altman Z-Score). However, an unsustainable multiple regime of 159.0x EV/EBITDA, 147.9x trailing P/E, and a razor-thin 0.75% FCF Yield leaves the asset priced for flawless execution, offering negligible margin of safety against macro duration shocks or customer concentration rollovers. The desk mandates a Neutral/Pair Trade stance, funding PLTR longs against legacy software or shorting PLTR against mega-cap hyperscalers.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Hyper-Scale Operating Leverage and Margin Expansion

Enterprise ontology adoption is driving structural margin expansion, with Operating Margin compounding from -8.5% in FY 2022 to 42.8% TTM (reaching 47.1% in Q2 2026) alongside 78.9% YoY top-line acceleration.

GROSS MARGIN: 84.8% | OPERATING MARGIN: 42.8% | REV YOY: 78.9%

02. Elite Capital Efficiency and Pristine Balance Sheet Solvency

Capital-light deployment models supported Q2 2026 ROIC of 37.2% with $1.20B quarterly FCF on de minimis capex of $14.6M, completely insulated from refinancing risk via a fortress balance sheet.

ROIC: 26.9% | DEBT-TO-EQUITY: 0.00x | ALTMAN Z: 17.06 | PIOTROSKI: 8/9

03. Institutional Monetization Velocity in Sovereign & Enterprise AI

High-margin public and private sector penetration continues to deliver sequential EPS expansion, generating $1.17 TTM diluted EPS and $1.06B net income in Q2 2026 alone.

DILUTED EPS: $1.17 | Q2 2026 NET INC: $1.06B | Q2 2026 REV YOY: 92.8%

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Extreme Valuation Multiples and FCF Yield Compression

Trading at 159.0x EV/EBITDA and 147.9x P/E with an FCF Yield of just 0.75%, PLTR is vulnerable to severe de-rating on any deceleration from its 86.7x forward multiple expectations.

EV/EBITDA: 159.0x | TRAILING P/E: 147.9x | FCF YIELD: 0.75%

02. Severe Downside Skew and Technical Breakdown Risk

The stock has breached its 50D SMA ($186.90) at $184.11, while the options surface indicates heavy downside positioning with a 1.23 Put/Call ratio and a Max Pain target down at $140.00.

PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.23 | MAX PAIN: $140.00 | 50D SMA: $186.90 | BETA: 2.17

03. High Customer and Infrastructure Concentration Exposure

Revenues and gross margins are structurally levered to concentrated counterparties, with U.S. DoD/Allied agencies representing 54% customer exposure and hyperscalers (AWS/Azure) commanding 77% vendor infrastructure exposure.

DOD EXPOSURE: 54% | AWS EXPOSURE: 42% | AZURE EXPOSURE: 35%

KEY CATALYST // Q3 2026 earnings release and FY 2027 guidance iteration, carrying a 14.3% options implied move against an ominous $140.00 Max Pain strike and demanding sustained >80% revenue acceleration to defend multiples.

MACRO REGIME // PLTR exhibits pronounced duration and risk-off sensitivity, demonstrated by inverse correlations to credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2 r = -0.36, where a +50 bps widening historically drives -10.94% weekly return decay) and volatility (VIXCLS r = -0.37, mapping a +5.0 pt spike to a -5.45% weekly drawdown). Persistent inflation prints also present major multiple headwinds via inverse elasticity to PCEPI (r = -0.28) and CPILFESL (r = -0.23).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
Sen. Tommy Tuberville	BUY	$1.1M
Renaissance Technologies	BUY	$915.4M
Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)	BUY	$349.2M
Woersching Eric H.	SELL	$205.0K

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
$195 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$9.5M
$188 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$12.5M
$190 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$8.1M
$215 (2026-11-06)	CALL	$1.8M

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 146.7x

FORWARD P/E 83.7x

EV / EBITDA 157.6x

FCF YIELD 0.76%

GROSS MARGIN 84.8%

OPERATING MARGIN 42.8%

NET MARGIN 49.0%

ROIC % 26.9%

REV GROWTH YOY +78.9%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.17

DEBT / EQUITY 0.00x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.2

5Y EQUITY BETA 2.17

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -0.37 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.37, R² = 13.5% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -5.45% weekly return elasticity on PLTR.

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) -0.36 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.36, R² = 13.2% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -10.94% weekly return elasticity on PLTR.

PCEPI // Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index -0.28 r

Moderate inverse linkage (r = -0.28, R² = 7.8% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PCEPI historically maps to -33.79% weekly return elasticity on PLTR.

CPILFESL // Core Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy -0.23 r

Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.23, R² = 5.5% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in CPILFESL historically maps to -37.48% weekly return elasticity on PLTR.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PLTRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

56/100ELEVATED REGIME HEADWIND

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.36 r

Latest: 3.26%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-4.90%

Implied Px: $175.08

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE