ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

PSX // Phillips 66

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001534701 ↗
Energy • Integrated oil Companies
$282.83 ▲ +9.22 (+3.37%)
MKT CAP: $110.32B • VOL: 3.68M
PSX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // D+ (RQD 56) -> C- (RQD 59)
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF +55.8% vs NI +108% • ROIC-WACC +0.9% • Z 4.21
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
19 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 90% • VS 200D +40.7% • RSI 54.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.17 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.29
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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PSX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +58.47%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $273.6H $282.8L $273.6C $282.8VOL 3.68M
RES: $312.6SUP: $272.7SMA50: $268.4SMA200: $201.0
$310.3$265.1$219.8$174.5$129.3RES $312.6SUP $272.7$282.82026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PSX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 41/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Phillips 66 (PSX) exhibits 12.3% gross margins and 9.2% return on invested capital within Energy (Integrated oil Companies), balanced against a 11.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 12.3% gross profitability converts into 4.1% operating margin and 9.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.2% // GM: 12.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -7.5% paired with -0.93% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -7.5% // FCF YLD: -0.93%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.21 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.21 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.2x trailing P/E (22.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.2x // EV/EBITDA: 11.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $282.83 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Integrated oil Companies require continuous execution to defend 3.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.3% // D/E: 0.63x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.09).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 24.2x
FORWARD P/E 22.5x
EV / EBITDA 11.9x
FCF YIELD -0.93%
GROSS MARGIN 12.3%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.1%
NET MARGIN 3.3%
ROIC % 9.2%
REV GROWTH YOY -7.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $11.29
DEBT / EQUITY 0.63x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.80%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.09
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PSXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $258.80
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>