ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SBUX // Starbucks Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000829224 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants
$103.67 ▼ -1.84 (-1.74%)
MKT CAP: $120.28B • VOL: 14.22M
SBUX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF -26.4% vs NI -50.6% • ROIC-WACC +16.6% • Z 2.87
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 85% • VS 200D +5.5% • RSI 67.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +2% • P/E 60.3x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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SBUX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.24%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $103.2H $105.5L $103.2C $103.7VOL 11.12M
RES: $106.1SUP: $86.03SMA50: $99.19SMA200: $99.97
$112.1$105.4$98.70$91.98$85.27RES $106.1SUP $86.03$103.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
SBUX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 24.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 26.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 7.9% operating margin and 24.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +2.8% paired with 2.03% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +2.8% // FCF YLD: 2.03%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.87 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.87 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 64.8x trailing P/E (60.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 64.8x // EV/EBITDA: 26.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $103.67 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 5.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.0% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 60.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.94).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 64.8x
FORWARD P/E 60.3x
EV / EBITDA 26.8x
FCF YIELD 2.03%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 7.9%
NET MARGIN 5.0%
ROIC % 24.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +2.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.63
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.30%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 67.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.94
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SBUXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $94.86
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>