SPCX // Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001181412 ↗

Technology • Computer Software: Programming Data Processing

$136.37 ▲ +1.65 (+1.23%)

MKT CAP: $1.83T • VOL: 91.00M

52W L $105 52W H $226

ALTMAN Z

26.00 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

SPCX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

▼ DOWNGRADE // C (RQD 63) -> C- (RQD 59) AS OF 2026-11-03

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

59 / 100 -4D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

15 / 20

SOLID

FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +52% • Z 26

02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

9 / 20

WARNING

52W RANGE 25% • VS 200D -7.5% • RSI 39.5

03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

17 / 20

STRONG

FCF YIELD +4% • P/E 18.2x • F-SCORE 7/9

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

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ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON SPCX)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (96/100)SIFTER 05 // TRUE NET LIQUIDITY BETA

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +6.01σ

SPCX Macro Tailwind Hits 96/100 Despite True Net Liquidity Contracting -0.64% 4W

TRUE NET LIQUIDITY

$5,746B (-0.64% 4W)

NET LIQUIDITY ELASTICITY

6.00x BETA (r=-0.23)

MACRO TAILWIND SCORE

96 / 100

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // FRED WALCL - TGA - RRP × 5Y BETA]

FRED Fed Assets (WALCL)US Treasury TGA (WTREGEN) + ON RRPICE BofA High-Yield OAS + 5Y Equity Beta

SPCX registers an extreme z-score of 6.01 across integrated liquidity feeds, establishing an institutional macro tailwind score of 96 / 100. This tailwind prints despite True Net Liquidity contracting -0.64% over the 4-week period to $5,746B ($5745.73B) with ICE BofA High-Yield OAS widening 34 bps. The dislocation is governed by a 6.00x net liquidity elasticity beta alongside an inverse correlation of r=-0.23, highlighting critical institutional positioning divergence.

SPCX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.27%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $143.9H $143.9L $134.7C $136.4VOL 122.65M

RES: $192.4SUP: $133.7SMA50: $149.8SMA200: $145.6

SPCX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 58.3% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), balanced against a 14.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 21.1% operating margin and 58.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 58.3% // GM: 45.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +20.9% paired with 3.99% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +20.9% // FCF YLD: 3.99%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 26.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 26.00 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.7x trailing P/E (18.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.7x // EV/EBITDA: 14.3x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $136.37 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Programming Data Processing require continuous execution to defend 16.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.4% // D/E: 8.28x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.36).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 21.7x

FORWARD P/E 18.2x

EV / EBITDA 14.3x

FCF YIELD 3.99%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN 21.1%

NET MARGIN 16.4%

ROIC % 58.3%

REV GROWTH YOY +20.9%

DILUTED EPS TTM $6.62

DEBT / EQUITY 8.28x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 39.5

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.36

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SPCXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $124.78

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SPCX & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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