ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

THG // Hanover Insurance Group Inc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000944695 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$248.40 ▲ +6.31 (+2.61%)
MKT CAP: $8.32B • VOL: 535.4K
THG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 77/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
77 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +47% vs NI +55.5% • ROIC-WACC +0.3% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 99% • VS 200D +20.3% • RSI 63.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
15 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
SIGNAL

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THG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +35.53%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $235.1H $248.4L $235.1C $248.4VOL 431.3K
RES: $241.1SUP: $210.8SMA50: $227.1SMA200: $201.2
$253.5$232.5$211.6$190.7$169.7RES $241.1SUP $210.8$248.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
THG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 9.1% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 13.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 14.1% operating margin and 9.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.7% paired with 14.30% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.7% // FCF YLD: 14.30%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.4x trailing P/E (11.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.4x // EV/EBITDA: 13.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $248.40 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 10.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.01).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 12.4x
FORWARD P/E 11.5x
EV / EBITDA 13.5x
FCF YIELD 14.30%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 14.1%
NET MARGIN 10.0%
ROIC % 9.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $19.03
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.60%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.01
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // THGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $227.29
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for THG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>