ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TPL // Texas Pacific Land Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001811074 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$331.68 ▲ +3.72 (+1.13%)
MKT CAP: $22.62B • VOL: 481.1K
TPL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +11.1% vs NI +6% • ROIC-WACC +16.1% • Z 26
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.08 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.29
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did TPL's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever TPL is Upgraded or Downgraded.

TPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.37%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $331.9H $331.9L $328.0C $331.7VOL 335.3K
RES: $353.8SUP: $317.3SMA50: $351.3SMA200: $401.7
$490.7$445.8$400.8$355.8$310.8RES $353.8SUP $317.3$331.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TPL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 59/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 25.9% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 36.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 74.2% operating margin and 25.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 25.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.1% paired with 2.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.1% // FCF YLD: 2.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 26.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 26.00 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 47.0x trailing P/E (39.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 47.0x // EV/EBITDA: 36.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $331.68 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 60.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 60.3% // D/E: 0.05x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 39.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.02).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 47.0x
FORWARD P/E 39.5x
EV / EBITDA 36.2x
FCF YIELD 2.25%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 74.2%
NET MARGIN 60.3%
ROIC % 25.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.98
DEBT / EQUITY 0.05x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.65%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 39.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.02
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TPLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $303.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TPL & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>