ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TXNM // TXNM Energy Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001108426 ↗
Utilities • Electric Utilities: Central
$58.70 ▲ +0.32 (+0.55%)
MKT CAP: $6.43B • VOL: 844.9K
TXNM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C- (RQD 59) -> D+ (RQD 53)
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
53 / 100 -6D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +16.3% vs NI -34.4% • ROIC-WACC -2.1% • Z 0.8
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 70% • VS 200D 0% • RSI 47.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +7.6% • P/E 35.3x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TXNM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.83%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $58.65H $58.70L $58.38C $58.70VOL 967.8K
RES: $58.99SUP: $58.33SMA50: $58.32SMA200: $58.39
$59.80$58.67$57.55$56.42$55.29RES $58.99SUP $58.33$58.702026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
TXNM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 4.1% return on invested capital within Utilities (Electric Utilities: Central), balanced against a 22.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 20.6% operating margin and 4.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.0% paired with 7.56% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.0% // FCF YLD: 7.56%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 38.0x trailing P/E (35.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 38.0x // EV/EBITDA: 22.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $58.70 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electric Utilities: Central require continuous execution to defend 7.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.9% // D/E: 1.50x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 35.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.49).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 38.0x
FORWARD P/E 35.3x
EV / EBITDA 22.1x
FCF YIELD 7.56%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 20.6%
NET MARGIN 7.9%
ROIC % 4.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.54
DEBT / EQUITY 1.50x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.53%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 47.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.49
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TXNMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $53.71
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>