ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

UPST // Upstart Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001647639 ↗
Financials • Finance: Consumer Services
$23.02 ▼ -1.82 (-7.33%)
MKT CAP: $2.42B • VOL: 4.28M
UPST // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 32/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
32 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
4 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -120% vs NI +141.7% • ROIC-WACC -5.2% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 9% • VS 200D -16.2% • RSI 53.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
13 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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UPST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.24%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $24.14H $24.84L $23.02C $23.02VOL 3.17M
RES: $26.08SUP: $20.82SMA50: $25.12SMA200: $29.64
$48.72$41.54$34.35$27.17$19.98RES $26.08SUP $20.82$23.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
UPST // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 69/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 3.2% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 62.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 4.1% operating margin and 3.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +64.0% paired with -6.13% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +64.0% // FCF YLD: -6.13%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 45.1x trailing P/E (37.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 45.1x // EV/EBITDA: 62.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $23.02 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 5.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.1% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 37.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.92).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 45.1x
FORWARD P/E 37.9x
EV / EBITDA 62.4x
FCF YIELD -6.13%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 4.1%
NET MARGIN 5.1%
ROIC % 3.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +64.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.55
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.92
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UPSTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $21.06
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>