FORWARD VERIFICATION CALENDAR (#5) 10Y YIELD: 4.98% · 10Y-2Y: +0.38% · CPI YOY: 3.7%

Next Major Catalyst Calendar & Five-Market Macro Matrix

Every Roarable thesis and swing setup commits to a dated verification window. Track upcoming primary-filing catalysts, active Setup Ledger expirations, and major macro releases below—and arm 1-click Watchlist reminders before volatility hits.

One Event, Five Markets Matrix ↓ ★ Manage Catalyst Alerts

SPY

S&P 500 Equities

$755.72 -0.38%

TLT

20+ Yr US Treasuries

$81.84 +0.61%

GLD

Gold Bullion Trust

$355.78 -1.34%

USO

WTI Crude Oil Fund

$168.83 +0.96%

IBIT

iShares Spot Bitcoin

$43.36 -0.94%

UNIFIED FORWARD TIMELINE (34 SCHEDULED WINDOWS)

Chronological Thesis, Setup Ledger & Macro Release Schedule

THESIS SETUP LEDGER MACRO / POLICY

Date (ET)	Stream	Catalyst Event & Verification Criteria	Exposed Tickers	AI Analyst
2026-11-06	THESIS · 86/100	Next Friday 16:30 ET Roarable Cross-Desk Evidence & Setup Ledger Audit Friday Evidence Audit: What Confirmed, What Stalled & Where Options Overpriced the Move (JEV 86/100)	NVDA ANET PLTR LLY COIN GLD	Felix Orven
2026-11-07	MACRO · 5 MARKETS	BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI & Core Services ex-Housing) (08:30 ET) Monthly Core CPI <= +0.20% MoM unlocks real-yield relief; >= +0.35% MoM reprices 10Y term premium higher and restores positive stock-bond drawdown correlation.	SPY TLT GLD USO IBIT	Soren Halewick
2026-11-07	THESIS · 91/100	BLS CPI Inflation Release & 10-Year / 30-Year Treasury Auction Tail Check One Event, Five Markets: 10Y Real Yields vs. SPY, TLT, GLD, USO & IBIT (JEV 91/100)	SPY TLT GLD USO IBIT	Soren Halewick
2026-11-09	THESIS · 87/100	Weekly Spot BTC ETF Net Creation Ledger & Monthly COIN / MSTR 8-K Treasury Update Spot ETF Flows vs. Corporate Treasury Leverage: IBIT, COIN & MSTR (JEV 87/100)	IBIT COIN MSTR	Nadia Vellacrest
2026-11-10	SETUP · DEVELOPING	QQQ — Nasdaq-100 Real-Yield Digestion Coil (10Y Treasury auction & mega-cap software/semi breadth check) Trigger $701.54 · Invalidation $668.39 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	QQQ	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-10	SETUP · DEVELOPING	SPY — Index 50D Trend Continuation (BLS CPI Inflation Print & FOMC rate transmission check) Trigger $764.79 · Invalidation $736.07 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	SPY	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-11	THESIS · 96/100	PJM Interconnection Queue Update & Next Hyperscaler Quarterly CapEx / Backlog Cycle The Second-Order AI Bottleneck: Hyperscaler CapEx Is Shifting Pricing Power to Custom Networking, Switchgear & Baseload IPPs (JEV 96/100)	NVDA AVGO ANET VRT ETN VST	Mara Quenwick
2026-11-11	SETUP · DEVELOPING	PLTR — Post-Gap High-Tight Consolidation (DoD USASpending monthly obligation refresh) Trigger $203.29 · Invalidation $179.72 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	PLTR	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-12	SETUP · DEVELOPING	SMCI — 200D Mean-Reversion & Governance Audit Watch (SEC filing compliance, gross-margin & working-capital dilution audit) Trigger $36.67 · Invalidation $31.33 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	SMCI	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-12	SETUP · DEVELOPING	TLT — Long-Bond Auction Tail Base Watch (BLS CPI release & US Treasury 10Y/30Y reopening auctions) Trigger $83.56 · Invalidation $79.55 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	TLT	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-12	SETUP · DEVELOPING	COIN — 50D SMA Pullback Reclaim Watch (Monthly crypto exchange spot volume & ETF custody fee audit) Trigger $167.82 · Invalidation $149.03 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	COIN	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-12	SETUP · DEVELOPING	TSM — CoWoS Leader Ascending Channel (TSMC monthly NT$ net revenue report (10th of month)) Trigger $443.90 · Invalidation $403.74 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	TSM	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-13	MACRO · 5 MARKETS	BLS Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings (08:30 ET) Separates benign soft-landing growth (140K–190K jobs, <= 0.3% MoM wages) from a recessionary growth scare (<75K jobs) or wage-inflation re-acceleration.	SPY TLT GLD USO IBIT	Soren Halewick
2026-11-13	SETUP · DEVELOPING	IBIT — Spot ETF Creation-Flow Range Coil (Weekly Spot BTC ETF creation/redemption ledger & CPI liquidity reaction) Trigger $45.01 · Invalidation $40.54 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	IBIT	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-13	SETUP · DEVELOPING	VST — IPP Capacity Auction Momentum Trigger (PJM capacity & FERC Docket EL25-49 filing window) Trigger $145.46 · Invalidation $130.38 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	VST	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-14	THESIS · 88/100	DoD Monthly USASpending Obligation Refresh & Congressional Appropriations Markup Window Defense & Space Procurement Shift: Verified DoD Obligations vs. Backlog Multiples (JEV 88/100)	PLTR LMT RTX RKLB	Iona Brackenford
2026-11-14	SETUP · DEVELOPING	AVGO — Custom ASIC Base Flag Continuation (800G Tomahawk 5 & hyperscaler XPU tape check) Trigger $354.66 · Invalidation $326.37 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	AVGO	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-14	SETUP · DEVELOPING	ANET — 800G Ethernet Post-Revision Reclaim (Ultra Ethernet Consortium & hyperscaler port deployment check) Trigger $189.75 · Invalidation $171.32 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	ANET	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-15	SETUP · DEVELOPING	META — Relative-Strength Leader Pullback Shelf (Ad-impression pricing & Llama/AI infrastructure efficiency update) Trigger $638.26 · Invalidation $592.04 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	META	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-16	THESIS · 92/100	FERC PJM Co-Location Show-Cause Filing Window (Docket EL25-49) & Capacity Collar Update Public Correction & Regulatory Revision: Co-Located Nuclear PPA Timelines After FERC Docket ER24-2172 (JEV 92/100)	CEG VST AMZN MSFT	Iona Brackenford
2026-11-16	SETUP · DEVELOPING	NVDA — 50D SMA Consolidation Breakout (Hyperscaler AI CapEx & GTC / Data-Center rack shipment check) Trigger $220.50 · Invalidation $201.27 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	NVDA	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-16	SETUP · DEVELOPING	GLD — Sovereign Reserve Breakout Extension (Central-bank reserve disclosures & real TIPS yield check) Trigger $362.18 · Invalidation $342.26 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	GLD	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-17	THESIS · 89/100	Next 10-Q Diluted Share-Count & GAAP FCF-ex-SBC Forensic Audit Window Share-Count Creep & Refinancing Watch: Separating Real Free Cash Flow from SBC Dilution (JEV 89/100)	SMCI SOFI SNAP RIVN	Gideon Ashmere
2026-11-17	SETUP · DEVELOPING	MSFT — 200D SMA Mean-Reversion Watch (Azure cloud capacity & enterprise Copilot monetization check) Trigger $542.86 · Invalidation $507.87 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	MSFT	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-17	SETUP · DEVELOPING	LLY — Incretin Capacity Base Reclaim (FDA compounding enforcement & quarterly Zepbound/Mounjaro prescription check) Trigger $1,408.04 · Invalidation $1,307.76 · Horizon 5–15 Trading Days	LLY	Ellis Vennor
2026-11-19	MACRO · 5 MARKETS	FOMC Rate Decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) & QT Pace (14:00 ET Statement / 14:30 ET Press Conf) Watch Balance Sheet Quantitative Tightening (QT) runoff caps and the median long-run neutral rate ("r-star") dot—often more market-moving than the immediate overnight rate vote.	SPY TLT GLD USO IBIT	Soren Halewick
2026-11-20	THESIS · 90/100	Ultra Ethernet Consortium Spec Milestone & Hyperscaler 800G Port Shipment Check What Changed Our Mind: High-Speed 800G AI Ethernet Caught Up Faster Than Our Initial Model Assumed (JEV 90/100)	ANET AVGO NVDA META	Mara Quenwick
2026-11-25	MACRO · 5 MARKETS	U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Coupon Sizes & TGA Cash Balance Target (08:30 ET) Determines the mix of short-term T-Bills versus 10Y/20Y/30Y coupon supply and Treasury General Account (TGA) cash rebuild—the hidden plumbing engine behind term premium.	SPY TLT GLD USO IBIT	Soren Halewick
2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)	POLICY · PROPOSAL	Chassis and Subassemblies From China; Determinations (FR Doc. 2026-22342) Investigation initiation or preliminary trade notice—cash deposit rates at US Customs can still change sharply at Final Determination.	XLI SPY	Iona Brackenford
2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)	POLICY · COMMENT_RULEMAKING	Antidumping or Countervailing Duty Order, Finding, or Suspended Investigation; Opportunity To Request Administrative Review and Join Annual Inquiry Service List; Note Regarding Format of Review Requests (FR Doc. 2026-22345) Preliminary duty determination open for brief/rebuttal—watch final HTSUS tariff schedule publication and CBP liquidation instructions.	XLI SPY	Iona Brackenford
2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)	POLICY · PROPOSAL	Polyester Textured Yarn From Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam; Institution of Five-Year Reviews (FR Doc. 2026-22349) Investigation initiation or preliminary trade notice—cash deposit rates at US Customs can still change sharply at Final Determination.	XLI SPY	Iona Brackenford
2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)	POLICY · LITIGATION_HOLD	Corrosion-Resistant Steel Products From Mexico: Notice of Court Decision Not in Harmony With the Final Determination of Antidumping Duty Investigation; Notice of Amended Final Determination; Notice of Amended Antidumping (FR Doc. 2026-22351) U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) injunction or remand—customs liquidation suspended pending judicial review.	NUE STLD CAT	Iona Brackenford
2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)	POLICY · PROPOSAL	Certain Mobile Access Equipment (MAE) and Subassemblies Thereof From China; Institution of Five-Year Reviews (FR Doc. 2026-22348) Investigation initiation or preliminary trade notice—cash deposit rates at US Customs can still change sharply at Final Determination.	XLI SPY	Iona Brackenford
2027-01-01 (60d Statutory Effective Window)	POLICY · ENACTED_FINAL_RULE	Adjusting Imports of Robotics, Industrial Machinery, and Their Parts and Components Into the United States (FR Doc. 2026-22385) Binding duty order or proclamation active; margin impact depends on pre-tariff inventory buffers, supplier country-of-origin shifts, and customer price pass-through.	CAT DE	Iona Brackenford

SOREN HALEWICK | ROARABLE AI ANALYST SIGNATURE MATRIX // ONE EVENT, FIVE MARKETS

How FOMC, CPI, Payrolls & Treasury Refunding Transmit Across SPY, TLT, GLD, USO & IBIT

“Is this a company story, or is it really a rates, dollar, and liquidity story?” Use Soren's cross-asset playbook to read whether all five markets confirm a genuine regime shift or signal a head-fake.

Read Full Macro Dossier →

📅 2026-11-07 · 08:30 ET | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (FRED: CPIAUCSL / CPILFESL) ↗

BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI & Core Services ex-Housing)

KEY THRESHOLD: Monthly Core CPI <= +0.20% MoM unlocks real-yield relief; >= +0.35% MoM reprices 10Y term premium higher and restores positive stock-bond drawdown correlation.

SPY CROSS-ASSET

COOL = BULLISH / HOT = MULTIPLE COMPRESSION

Equity duration (tech/growth) expands if Core MoM <= 0.2%, compresses if 10Y breaches 4.50%.

TLT CROSS-ASSET

HIGHEST DIRECT SENSITIVITY (~16.5Y DURATION)

Hot services print steepens long end immediately; cool print sparks short-covering rally.

GLD CROSS-ASSET

TWO-WAY REAL-RATE VS. INFLATION HEDGE

Initial knee-jerk dip on hot CPI real-yield spike often bought if Fed stays behind curve.

USO CROSS-ASSET

HEADLINE CPI INPUT & DEMAND CHECK

Energy drives headline-vs-core spread; watch refinery crack spreads alongside WTI.

IBIT CROSS-ASSET

HIGH-BETA DOLLAR LIQUIDITY PROXY

Amplifies QQQ/real-rate direction 2x–2.5x during first 90 minutes post-08:30 ET print.

📅 2026-11-13 · 08:30 ET | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation (FRED: PAYEMS / UNRATE) ↗

BLS Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings

KEY THRESHOLD: Separates benign soft-landing growth (140K–190K jobs, <= 0.3% MoM wages) from a recessionary growth scare (<75K jobs) or wage-inflation re-acceleration.

SPY CROSS-ASSET

GOLDILOCKS 140K–190K SWEET SPOT

Sub-75K print flips market from "bad news is rate cuts" to genuine EPS recession fear.

TLT CROSS-ASSET

TRUE RECESSION HEDGE ON WEAK NFP

Unlike hot-CPI selloffs, an unemployment jump triggers classic flight-to-safety TLT buying.

GLD CROSS-ASSET

RALLIES ON LABOR COOLING / CUT ODDS

Softer payrolls pull 2Y/10Y real yields lower, supporting bullion breakouts.

USO CROSS-ASSET

CYCLICAL DEMAND SENSITIVE

Sharp payroll misses weigh on transport/industrial crude demand expectations.

IBIT CROSS-ASSET

LIQUIDITY & RISK-APPETITE DUAL BETA

Benefits from dovish wage cooling, but vulnerable if hard-landing equity de-grossing hits.

📅 2026-11-19 · 14:00 ET Statement / 14:30 ET Press Conf | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ↗

FOMC Rate Decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) & QT Pace

KEY THRESHOLD: Watch Balance Sheet Quantitative Tightening (QT) runoff caps and the median long-run neutral rate ("r-star") dot—often more market-moving than the immediate overnight rate vote.

SPY CROSS-ASSET

WHIPSAW AT 14:00, TREND AT 14:35 ET

First move at 14:00 ET frequently reverses during Chair Q&A on financial-conditions tone.

TLT CROSS-ASSET

WATCH QT TAPER & NEUTRAL DOT

Slower Treasury runoff cap supports long-end bonds; higher long-run neutral dot hurts TLT.

GLD CROSS-ASSET

DOVISH TOLERANCE BENEFICIARY

Outperforms whenever FOMC prioritizes labor protection over pushing real rates higher.

USO CROSS-ASSET

DXY DOLLAR CHANNEL TRANSMISSION

Dovish FOMC weakens USD (DXY), providing mechanical tailwind to dollar-priced crude.

IBIT CROSS-ASSET

NET LIQUIDITY (WALCL - TGA - RRP) BELLWETHER

Responds fastest to any hint of QT pause or reserve-management liquidity stabilization.

📅 2026-11-25 · 08:30 ET | U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management ↗

U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Coupon Sizes & TGA Cash Balance Target

KEY THRESHOLD: Determines the mix of short-term T-Bills versus 10Y/20Y/30Y coupon supply and Treasury General Account (TGA) cash rebuild—the hidden plumbing engine behind term premium.

SPY CROSS-ASSET

T-BILL SKEW = LIQUIDITY TAILWIND

Higher T-Bill share drains RRP/absorbs cleanly; heavy 10Y/30Y coupon hikes pressure P/E multiples.

TLT CROSS-ASSET

DIRECT SUPPLY/DEMAND CATALYST

Upsized 20Y/30Y auction tranches widen term premium and push TLT toward support lows.

GLD CROSS-ASSET

FISCAL DEFICIT & SOVEREIGN SUPPLY HEDGE

Structurally supported by elevated gross fiscal issuance regardless of bill/coupon split.

USO CROSS-ASSET

MODERATE / SPR & GROWTH SECONDARY

Indirect transmission via broader risk sentiment and USD funding conditions.

IBIT CROSS-ASSET

TGA REBUILD = TEMPORARY LIQUIDITY DRAIN

Rapid TGA cash rebuilds drain bank reserves (Net Liquidity), creating short-term crypto headwinds.