1-click starter watchlist covering leading-edge wafer fabrication (CoWoS/2nm), High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM3e/HBM4), merchant GPUs, custom hyperscaler ASICs, and 800G Ethernet fabrics.
Captures the full compute-and-memory silicon stack from TSMC wafer packaging through HBM and custom XPU interconnects.
2nd-Order Play:82% Crowd Odds of $325B+ Hyperscaler CapEx → Own High-RQD Thermal Liquid Cooling & Custom ASIC Networking Suppliers Over Crowded Megacaps
2nd-Order Play:79% Odds of TSMC CoWoS Packaging Expansion → Buy Semiconductor Metrology & EUV Lithography Bottlenecks
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Form 20-F/monthly revenue releases and Micron Technology (MU) Form 10-Q confirm sold-out CoWoS advanced packaging capacity allocations and HBM3e supply agreements.
Whether a hyperscaler trains on merchant GPUs (NVDA) or internal custom XPUs (AVGO), both paths converge on TSMC leading-edge wafers/CoWoS packaging (TSM), HBM memory stacks (MU), and 800G Ethernet switches (ANET).
Watch monthly TSMC NT$ revenue prints and DRAM/HBM gross-margin progression to spot inventory digestion early.
All five names carry >0.75 pairwise correlation during semiconductor risk-off tape and export-control headlines. Owning all five at full size creates concentrated single-factor exposure rather than true diversification.
SOXX / TSM breaking below 200-day moving average alongside rising foundry inventory days.
Follow this Starter Kit to track TSM, AVGO, NVDA, ANET, and MU together.
| Symbol | Status | Setup Structure | Spot | Trigger | Invalidation | Pre-Published Rule / Audit Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | DEVELOPING | 50D SMA Consolidation Breakout | $202.06 | $220.50 | $201.27 | Daily RTH close >= $220.50 on >= 1.15x 20D avg dollar volume while holding above 50D SMA ($200.67). |
| AVGO | INVALIDATED | Custom ASIC Base Flag Continuation | $322.23 | $354.66 | $326.37 | INVALIDATED: Live close ($326.08) breached pre-published invalidation floor ($326.37). Logged transparently without hindsight editing. |
| TSM | DEVELOPING | CoWoS Leader Ascending Channel | $398.63 | $443.90 | $403.74 | Daily ADR RTH close >= $443.90 clearing 3-week foundry consolidation. |
| ANET | INVALIDATED | 800G Ethernet Post-Revision Reclaim | $164.14 | $189.75 | $171.32 | INVALIDATED: Live close ($168.86) breached pre-published invalidation floor ($171.32). Logged transparently without hindsight editing. |
Published Theme Starter Kit (#52) for Advanced Foundry, HBM & Custom Silicon.
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