1-click cross-asset macro watchlist tracking how Treasury duration, broad US equities, Nasdaq growth duration, gold bullion, and spot Bitcoin reprice around Fed and CPI releases.
Core liquid ETF bench linking Soren Halewick’s cross-asset rate matrix directly to member watchlists.
2nd-Order Play:74% Crowd Odds of 2+ Fed Rate Cuts (+8.4% 24h Surge) → Long High-RQD FinTech Deposit Engines & Rate-Sensitive Infrastructure
2nd-Order Play:69% Crowd Odds of US Stablecoin Law (+11.2% 24h Jump) → Long Regulated Institutional Custody & High-Velocity Retail Brokerage Rails
TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) carries an effective duration of roughly ~16.5 years, creating direct mathematical sensitivity to 10Y–30Y Treasury yield shifts documented in iShares fund disclosures and FRED H.15 yield tables.
Tracking TLT alongside GLD, SPY, QQQ, and IBIT immediately reveals whether a rate decline is benign "immaculate disinflation" (all five rise) or a recessionary growth scare (TLT and GLD rally while SPY, QQQ, and IBIT sell off).
Never assume Fed Funds cuts automatically lift TLT; fiscal deficit supply and sticky services CPI can steepen the long end even as front-end rates fall.
If Treasury coupon supply keeps long-end term premium elevated, TLT can underperform cash for extended stretches while non-sovereign scarce assets (GLD and spot BTC via IBIT) capture monetary-debasement inflows.
10Y–2Y Treasury curve bear-steepening >40 bps alongside sticky >3.2% Core CPI.
Follow this Starter Kit to track TLT, GLD, SPY, QQQ, and IBIT macro regime shifts.
| Symbol | Status | Setup Structure | Spot | Trigger | Invalidation | Pre-Published Rule / Audit Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | DEVELOPING | Index 50D Trend Continuation | $752.10 | $764.79 | $736.07 | Daily RTH close >= $764.79 with >= 60% NYSE advancing volume breadth. |
| QQQ | DEVELOPING | Nasdaq-100 Real-Yield Digestion Coil | $681.09 | $701.54 | $668.39 | Daily RTH close >= $701.54 while 10Y Treasury yield (DGS10) remains < 4.50%. |
| IBIT | DEVELOPING | Spot ETF Creation-Flow Range Coil | $43.35 | $45.01 | $40.54 | Daily RTH close >= $45.01 accompanied by >= 3 consecutive days of net positive US spot BTC ETF creations. |
| TLT | DEVELOPING | Long-Bond Auction Tail Base Watch | $81.73 | $83.56 | $79.55 | Wait for RTH close >= $83.56 confirming 10Y/30Y auction absorption without tailing. |
| GLD | DEVELOPING | Sovereign Reserve Breakout Extension | $361.65 | $362.18 | $342.26 | Daily RTH close >= $362.18 clearing multi-week bullion consolidation high. |
Published Theme Starter Kit (#52) for Rate-Cut & Treasury Duration Proxies.
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