ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ABTC // American Bitcoin Corp. (Class A)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001755953 ↗
Financials • Finance: Consumer Services
$6.15 ▼ -0.49 (-7.38%)
MKT CAP: $483.5M • VOL: 869.6K
ABTC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 25/100 [E] (-2 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
23 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
6 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -31.3% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -36.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
3 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 2% • VS 200D -46.5% • RSI 41
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
3 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.01 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.35
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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ABTC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -64.96%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $7.50H $7.50L $6.15C $6.15VOL 1.27M
RES: $8.46SUP: $7.62SMA50: $8.30SMA200: $12.42
$57.42$43.19$28.96$14.73$0.50RES $8.46SUP $7.62$6.152026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
ABTC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

American Bitcoin Corp. (Class A) (ABTC) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -27.1% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -27.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -27.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +158.8% paired with -14.58% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +158.8% // FCF YLD: -14.58%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 2/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $6.15 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -14.58%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -27.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +158.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 41.0
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ABTCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $5.63
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>