ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ACHC // Acadia Healthcare Company Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001520697 ↗
Health Care • Medical Specialities
$29.96 ▲ +0.50 (+1.70%)
MKT CAP: $2.79B • VOL: 2.58M
ACHC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 37/100 [D-] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
38 / 100 +1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF +21.5% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -32.1% • Z 0.45
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 76% • VS 200D +15% • RSI 50.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.04 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.17
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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ACHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.20%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $29.46H $29.96L $29.46C $29.96VOL 2.58M
RES: $32.33SUP: $26.81SMA50: $29.13SMA200: $26.05
$36.91$32.43$27.95$23.46$18.98RES $32.33SUP $26.81$29.962026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
ACHC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (ACHC) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -24.8% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical Specialities), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -40.6% operating margin and -24.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -24.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.0% paired with -16.04% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.0% // FCF YLD: -16.04%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.45 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.45 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (21.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $29.96 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical Specialities require continuous execution to defend -33.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -33.3% // D/E: 1.27x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 21.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.07).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 21.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -16.04%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -40.6%
NET MARGIN -33.3%
ROIC % -24.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-11.84
DEBT / EQUITY 1.27x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.07
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ACHCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $27.41
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>