ROARABLE // PRO
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ADPT // Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001478320 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)
$25.80 ▲ +0.74 (+2.95%)
MKT CAP: $4.00B • VOL: 1.51M
ADPT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 51/100 [D] (-3 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
48 / 100 -3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
7 / 20
WARNING
FCF +50.5% vs NI +62.7% • ROIC-WACC -20.6% • Z 6.32
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 78% • VS 200D +34.9% • RSI 50
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.09 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.27
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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ADPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +87.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $26.64H $26.64L $25.06C $25.80VOL 2.34M
RES: $33.26SUP: $24.61SMA50: $26.46SMA200: $19.79
$32.02$26.73$21.44$16.15$10.86RES $33.26SUP $24.61$25.802026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
ADPT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 57/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) exhibits 74.2% gross margins and -12.5% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 74.2% gross profitability converts into -20.6% operating margin and -12.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -12.5% // GM: 74.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +54.8% paired with -1.09% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +54.8% // FCF YLD: -1.09%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.32 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.32 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (26.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $25.80 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) require continuous execution to defend -21.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -21.5% // D/E: 0.58x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 26.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.01).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 26.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -1.09%
GROSS MARGIN 74.2%
OPERATING MARGIN -20.6%
NET MARGIN -21.5%
ROIC % -12.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +54.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.37
DEBT / EQUITY 0.58x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.01
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ADPTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $23.61
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>