ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ALLE // Allegion plc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001579241 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Diversified Commercial Services
$186.44 ▼ -0.62 (-0.33%)
MKT CAP: $15.77B • VOL: 1.25M
ALLE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 79/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
79 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +3.1% vs NI +7.7% • ROIC-WACC +11.1% • Z 5.07
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
18 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 96% • VS 200D +24.1% • RSI 81.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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ALLE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +40.72%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $180.7H $187.1L $180.7C $186.4VOL 1.49M
RES: $190.2SUP: $145.4SMA50: $159.5SMA200: $150.7
$194.1$175.4$156.6$137.9$119.2RES $190.2SUP $145.4$186.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
ALLE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Allegion plc (ALLE) exhibits 45.2% gross margins and 18.4% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Diversified Commercial Services), balanced against a 17.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.2% gross profitability converts into 21.1% operating margin and 18.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 18.4% // GM: 45.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +7.8% paired with 3.81% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +7.8% // FCF YLD: 3.81%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.07 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.07 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.5x trailing P/E (22.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.5x // EV/EBITDA: 17.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $186.44 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Diversified Commercial Services require continuous execution to defend 15.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.8% // D/E: 0.96x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.90).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 24.5x
FORWARD P/E 22.8x
EV / EBITDA 17.1x
FCF YIELD 3.81%
GROSS MARGIN 45.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 21.1%
NET MARGIN 15.8%
ROIC % 18.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +7.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $7.64
DEBT / EQUITY 0.96x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.11%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 81.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.90
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ALLEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $170.60
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>