ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

APPF // AppFolio Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001433195 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$224.86 ▲ +11.61 (+5.44%)
MKT CAP: $7.56B • VOL: 426.8K
APPF // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // B (RQD 74) -> B+ (RQD 76)
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
76 / 100 +2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +28.4% vs NI -30.9% • ROIC-WACC +10.1% • Z 26
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.11 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.10
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did APPF's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever APPF is Upgraded or Downgraded.

APPF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +29.51%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $207.1H $224.9L $207.1C $224.9VOL 245.7K
RES: $225.1SUP: $201.5SMA50: $211.2SMA200: $183.3
$243.2$215.9$188.6$161.4$134.1RES $225.1SUP $201.5$224.92026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
APPF // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 57/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

AppFolio Inc. (APPF) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 20.6% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 46.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 16.1% operating margin and 20.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 20.6% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +19.7% paired with 3.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +19.7% // FCF YLD: 3.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 26.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 26.00 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 52.1x trailing P/E (43.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 52.1x // EV/EBITDA: 46.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $224.86 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 14.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 14.8% // D/E: 0.11x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 43.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.23).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 52.1x
FORWARD P/E 43.8x
EV / EBITDA 46.9x
FCF YIELD 3.25%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 16.1%
NET MARGIN 14.8%
ROIC % 20.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +19.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.97
DEBT / EQUITY 0.11x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.23
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // APPFPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $205.75
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for APPF & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>