ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AR // Antero Resources Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001433270 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$40.64 ▼ -1.44 (-3.42%)
MKT CAP: $12.92B • VOL: 4.29M
AR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // B+ (RQD 76) -> B (RQD 75)
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
75 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 75% • VS 200D +13.9% • RSI 67.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +11% • P/E 15.7x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.15 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.19
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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AR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.81%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $41.20H $42.08L $40.64C $40.64VOL 5.48M
RES: $43.08SUP: $33.34SMA50: $37.77SMA200: $36.95
$43.46$40.51$37.56$34.61$31.66RES $43.08SUP $33.34$40.642026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
AR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 9.5% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 11.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 16.7% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +22.0% paired with 11.01% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +22.0% // FCF YLD: 11.01%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.11 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.11 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.7x trailing P/E (15.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.7x // EV/EBITDA: 11.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $40.64 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 12.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.8% // D/E: 0.19x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 15.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.09).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.7x
FORWARD P/E 15.7x
EV / EBITDA 11.5x
FCF YIELD 11.01%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 16.7%
NET MARGIN 12.8%
ROIC % 9.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +22.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.20
DEBT / EQUITY 0.19x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 67.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.09
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ARPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $37.19
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>