ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ARQT // Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001787306 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations
$32.07 ▲ +0.10 (+0.31%)
MKT CAP: $4.03B • VOL: 1.88M
ARQT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
54 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF +94.4% vs NI +88.5% • ROIC-WACC -11.1% • Z 7.78
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 91% • VS 200D +26.6% • RSI 66
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.15 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.20
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

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ARQT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +36.53%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $31.97H $32.07L $31.97C $32.07VOL 1.88M
RES: $33.83SUP: $24.16SMA50: $27.09SMA200: $25.34
$34.28$30.22$26.16$22.10$18.04RES $33.83SUP $24.16$32.072026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
ARQT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 82/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) exhibits 90.2% gross margins and -3.0% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 90.2% gross profitability converts into -3.3% operating margin and -3.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -3.0% // GM: 90.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +91.3% paired with -0.16% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +91.3% // FCF YLD: -0.16%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 7.78 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 7.78 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (24.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $32.07 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations require continuous execution to defend -4.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -4.3% // D/E: 0.57x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 24.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.00).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 24.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -0.16%
GROSS MARGIN 90.2%
OPERATING MARGIN -3.3%
NET MARGIN -4.3%
ROIC % -3.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +91.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.13
DEBT / EQUITY 0.57x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 66.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.00
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ARQTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $29.35
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>