ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AXGN // Axogen Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000805928 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus
$49.37 ▼ -0.26 (-0.52%)
MKT CAP: $2.95B • VOL: 1.84M
AXGN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
53 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
7 / 20
WARNING
FCF -120% vs NI -57.6% • ROIC-WACC -11.5% • Z 18.64
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 88% • VS 200D +23.9% • RSI 73.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.03 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.13
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

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AXGN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.81%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $49.63H $49.63L $49.37C $49.37VOL 1.84M
RES: $51.00SUP: $33.61SMA50: $42.84SMA200: $39.84
$54.80$46.99$39.18$31.37$23.56RES $51.00SUP $33.61$49.372026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
AXGN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Axogen Inc. (AXGN) exhibits 74.3% gross margins and -2.6% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 74.3% gross profitability converts into -3.5% operating margin and -2.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -2.6% // GM: 74.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +20.2% paired with -0.10% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +20.2% // FCF YLD: -0.10%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 18.64 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 18.64 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (18.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $49.37 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus require continuous execution to defend -7.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -7.0% // D/E: 0.38x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 18.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -0.10%
GROSS MARGIN 74.3%
OPERATING MARGIN -3.5%
NET MARGIN -7.0%
ROIC % -2.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +20.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.26
DEBT / EQUITY 0.38x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 73.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.10
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AXGNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $45.18
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>