ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AXSM // Axsome Therapeutics Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001579428 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations
$136.01 ▼ -8.42 (-5.83%)
MKT CAP: $7.57B • VOL: 2.72M
AXSM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 35/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
35 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
7 / 20
WARNING
FCF +27% vs NI +36.2% • ROIC-WACC -29.3% • Z 5.34
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
5 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 10% • VS 200D -27.3% • RSI 25.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
14 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 6 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did AXSM's Macro Regime Fit & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AXSM is Upgraded or Downgraded.

AXSM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -39.20%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $143.5H $144.4L $136.0C $136.0VOL 2.17M
RES: $209.6SUP: $127.8SMA50: $181.0SMA200: $198.8
$269.2$231.8$194.4$157.0$119.7RES $209.6SUP $127.8$136.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
AXSM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -21.9% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -26.1% operating margin and -21.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -21.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +65.5% paired with -1.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +65.5% // FCF YLD: -1.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.34 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.34 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (35.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $136.01 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations require continuous execution to defend -28.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -28.7% // D/E: 1.33x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 35.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.15).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 35.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -1.25%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -26.1%
NET MARGIN -28.7%
ROIC % -21.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +65.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-3.50
DEBT / EQUITY 1.33x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 25.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.15
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AXSMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $124.45
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AXSM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>