ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CBSH // Commerce Bancshares Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000022356 ↗
Financials • Major Banks
$55.80 ▲ +0.74 (+1.34%)
MKT CAP: $8.00B • VOL: 1.45M
CBSH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
69 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +11.4% vs NI +7.6% • ROIC-WACC -3.7% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.4% • P/E 11.8x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.02 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.39
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did CBSH's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever CBSH is Upgraded or Downgraded.

CBSH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.04%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $55.06H $55.80L $55.06C $55.80VOL 1.45M
RES: $56.07SUP: $54.35SMA50: $56.17SMA200: $54.44
$61.71$58.43$55.16$51.88$48.60RES $56.07SUP $54.35$55.802026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
CBSH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Commerce Bancshares Inc. (CBSH) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 4.5% return on invested capital within Financials (Major Banks), balanced against a 22.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 30.9% operating margin and 4.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +20.9% paired with 7.43% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +20.9% // FCF YLD: 7.43%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.1x trailing P/E (11.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.1x // EV/EBITDA: 22.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $55.80 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Banks require continuous execution to defend 25.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 25.4% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 14.1x
FORWARD P/E 11.8x
EV / EBITDA 22.1x
FCF YIELD 7.43%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 30.9%
NET MARGIN 25.4%
ROIC % 4.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +20.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.95
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.88%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CBSHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $51.06
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CBSH & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>