ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CDNA // CareDx Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001217234 ↗
Health Care • Medical Specialities
$85.88 ▼ -1.53 (-1.75%)
MKT CAP: $4.59B • VOL: 2.35M
CDNA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // C+ (RQD 69) -> B- (RQD 71)
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
71 / 100 +2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +8.3% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -17.8% • Z 19.22
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
19 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 95% • VS 200D +153.4% • RSI 67.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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CDNA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +309.73%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $71.52H $87.41L $71.52C $85.88VOL 3.56M
RES: $92.83SUP: $71.34SMA50: $61.60SMA200: $34.49
$96.05$74.58$53.10$31.62$10.14RES $92.83SUP $71.34$85.882026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
CDNA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 40/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

CareDx Inc. (CDNA) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -8.2% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical Specialities), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -8.1% operating margin and -8.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -8.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.8% paired with 0.67% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.8% // FCF YLD: 0.67%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 19.22 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 19.22 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (21.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $85.88 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical Specialities require continuous execution to defend -5.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -5.6% // D/E: 0.15x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 21.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.06).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 21.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 0.67%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -8.1%
NET MARGIN -5.6%
ROIC % -8.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.41
DEBT / EQUITY 0.15x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 67.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.06
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CDNAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $78.58
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>