ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

COGT // Cogent Biosciences Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001622229 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations
$29.73 ▼ -1.29 (-4.16%)
MKT CAP: $5.38B • VOL: 2.00M
COGT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 43/100 [D-] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
42 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -27.7% vs NI -28.6% • ROIC-WACC -44.3% • Z 10.84
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 58% • VS 200D -12.8% • RSI 47.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
14 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 6 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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COGT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.06%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $31.96H $31.96L $29.73C $29.73VOL 2.50M
RES: $49.66SUP: $25.59SMA50: $32.13SMA200: $35.59
$44.49$39.92$35.35$30.78$26.21RES $49.66SUP $25.59$29.732026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
COGT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -21.5% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +22.0% paired with -4.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +22.0% // FCF YLD: -4.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 10.84 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 10.84 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (22.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $29.73 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations require continuous execution to defend -21.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -21.2% // D/E: 0.20x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 22.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -4.80%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -21.5%
NET MARGIN -21.2%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +22.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-1.90
DEBT / EQUITY 0.20x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 47.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // COGTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $27.20
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for COGT & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>