ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CON // Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002014596 ↗
Health Care • Medical Specialities
$40.38 ▼ -0.87 (-2.11%)
MKT CAP: $5.26B • VOL: 989.9K
CON // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF -6.3% vs NI -0.1% • ROIC-WACC +13.3% • Z 2.53
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 99% • VS 200D +43.8% • RSI 69.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +3.8% • P/E 26.5x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +78.12%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $40.59H $41.25L $40.38C $40.38VOL 1.41M
RES: $41.74SUP: $36.36SMA50: $36.57SMA200: $28.69
$42.93$37.08$31.24$25.39$19.55RES $41.74SUP $36.36$40.382026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
CON // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 59/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Concentra Group Holdings Parent Inc. (CON) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 19.7% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical Specialities), balanced against a 15.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 15.4% operating margin and 19.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 19.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.9% paired with 3.75% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.9% // FCF YLD: 3.75%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.53 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.53 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 31.6x trailing P/E (26.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 31.6x // EV/EBITDA: 15.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $40.38 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical Specialities require continuous execution to defend 7.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.7% // D/E: 2.60x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 26.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.00).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 31.6x
FORWARD P/E 26.5x
EV / EBITDA 15.4x
FCF YIELD 3.75%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 15.4%
NET MARGIN 7.7%
ROIC % 19.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.31
DEBT / EQUITY 2.60x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.61%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 69.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.00
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CONPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $36.95
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>