ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CRGY // Crescent Energy Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001866175 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$13.47 ▼ -0.73 (-5.14%)
MKT CAP: $4.45B • VOL: 8.61M
CRGY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // C- (RQD 60) -> C (RQD 63)
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
63 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +39.2% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -5.9% • Z 0.78
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 84% • VS 200D +17.5% • RSI 59.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.23 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.29
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CRGY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $14.20H $14.20L $13.47C $13.47VOL 8.61M
RES: $16.18SUP: $13.08SMA50: $13.64SMA200: $12.12
$15.91$14.08$12.24$10.41$8.57RES $16.18SUP $13.08$13.472026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
CRGY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 1.7% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 27.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 6.4% operating margin and 1.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +22.1% paired with 22.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +22.1% // FCF YLD: 22.00%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.78 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.78 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 34.2x trailing P/E (28.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 34.2x // EV/EBITDA: 27.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $13.47 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 3.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.7% // D/E: 1.07x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 28.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 34.2x
FORWARD P/E 28.7x
EV / EBITDA 27.5x
FCF YIELD 22.00%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 6.4%
NET MARGIN 3.7%
ROIC % 1.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +22.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.40
DEBT / EQUITY 1.07x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.53%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 48.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CRGYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $12.33
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>