ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ECPG // Encore Capital Group Inc

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001084961 ↗
Financials • Finance Companies
$100.23 ▲ +0.25 (+0.25%)
MKT CAP: $2.12B • VOL: 222.6K
ECPG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // B (RQD 72) -> B- (RQD 70)
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
70 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 91% • VS 200D +19.6% • RSI 49.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +5.9% • P/E 7.8x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.03 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.34
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ECPG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.48%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $102.4H $102.4L $99.98C $100.2VOL 246.3K
RES: $106.3SUP: $97.29SMA50: $99.17SMA200: $83.63
$109.6$94.56$79.50$64.44$49.38RES $106.3SUP $97.29$100.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
ECPG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 83/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 60.4% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance Companies), balanced against a 3.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 75.0% operating margin and 60.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 60.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.3% paired with 5.85% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.3% // FCF YLD: 5.85%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 8.4x trailing P/E (7.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 8.4x // EV/EBITDA: 3.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $100.23 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance Companies require continuous execution to defend 68.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 68.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 7.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 8.4x
FORWARD P/E 7.8x
EV / EBITDA 3.1x
FCF YIELD 5.85%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 75.0%
NET MARGIN 68.0%
ROIC % 60.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $12.12
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ECPGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $91.71
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>