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Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$100.23 +0.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $100.52

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 60% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $2.12B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ECPG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ECPG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Encore Capital Group Inc (NASDAQ: ECPG) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $100.23 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $2.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ECPG ranks #106 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ECPG compare to AGM and TY in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), ECPG carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 60.4%. By comparison, AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $2.19B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECPG?
▼

Per ECPG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001084961), Encore Capital Group Inc generated $88.4M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $257.0M in net income, and $126.9M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $100.51 (+0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 143.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510070
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (14)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$125 Bull$106 Base$82 Bear
📬 FREE ECPG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ECPG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ECPG SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
78
Grade A-$105.60-2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$103.16-3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$99.46+0.8% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$100.23+6.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A- (78) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ECPG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, ECPG faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($99.17) or 200D SMA ($83.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($105.64) toward Bear Floor ($82.19).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ECPG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ECPG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
49.530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE91% OF RANGE
L: $41$100.23H: $106
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on ECPG

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

60.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 5.85% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (73)

30/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ECPG
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ECPG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ECPG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.48%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $102.4H $102.4L $99.98C $100.2VOL 246.3K
RES: $106.3SUP: $97.29SMA50: $99.17SMA200: $83.63
$109.6$94.56$79.50$64.44$49.38RES $106.3SUP $97.29$100.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ECPG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ECPG Butterfly Map → + Track ECPG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ECPG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ECPG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ECPG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ECPG)

Financials Rank #106 of 1097 ⚔️ AGM vs ECPG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ECPG vs. AGM, TY, BDJ, QQQX)

Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) ranks #106 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #418 by equity capitalization ($2.12B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ECPG leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while ECPG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ECPG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ECPG ACTIVE
Encore Capital Group Inc
B- 70/100 8.4x — 60.4% +0.25% $2.12B Benchmark Subject
AGM
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
D+ 57/100 10.7x — 12.1% +2.17% $2.19B /agm-vs-ecpg →
TY
Tri Continental Corporation
D 48/100 — — — -0.23% $1.87B /ty-vs-ecpg →
BDJ
Blackrock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust
D 51/100 — — — 0.00% $1.70B /bdj-vs-ecpg →
QQQX
Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund
D 50/100 — — — -1.16% $1.47B /qqqx-vs-ecpg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001084961 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) reported GAAP revenue of $88.4M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $84.8M , and +6.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $257.0M, operating cash flow of $153.2M, and free cash flow of $126.9M (-0.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ECPG closed FY2025 with $5.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $88.4M $257.0M $153.2M $126.9M $5.34B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $84.8M -$139.0M $156.2M $127.2M $4.79B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $83.1M -$206.0M $153.0M $153.0M — —

3. ECPG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ECPG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Encore Capital Group Inc (NASDAQ: ECPG) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $100.23 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $2.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ECPG ranks #106 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ECPG compare to AGM and TY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), ECPG carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 60.4%. By comparison, AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $2.19B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ECPG?

Per ECPG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001084961), Encore Capital Group Inc generated $88.4M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $257.0M in net income, and $126.9M in free cash flow against $5.34B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ECPG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ECPG last traded at $100.23 (+0.25% on volume of 222,578 shares), positioning the stock +1.07% above its 50-day simple moving average ($99.17) and +19.85% above its 200-day simple moving average ($83.63). Across its 52-week range of $41.06 to $105.98, ECPG sits at the 91.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($93.61 to $106.85).

Direct Sub-Reports: ECPG RQD Cockpit ECPG 12M Forecast ECPG Earnings & Move ECPG Dividends & DRIP ECPG Insiders & 13F ECPG Whale Options ECPG Profit Sankey ECPG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ECPG — Encore Capital Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $100.23 (+0.25% 1D, market capitalization $2.12B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 60.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 5.85%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Finance Companies industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $2.12B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 75%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 60.4% (free cash flow yield of 5.85%). Within the Finance Companies peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) reported $88.4M in annual revenue (up from $84.8M in FY2024, +4.3% YoY) and $257.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($83.1M revenue, -$206.0M net income) through FY2025, ECPG scaled operating cash flow to $153.2M and free cash flow to $126.9M, backed by $5.34B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.85% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $41.06 – $105.98 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 8.4x trailing P/E and 3.1x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals. Sector correlations and 2nd-order bottlenecks cannot be assessed from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can ECPG sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 60.4% ROIC against Finance Companies peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $88.4M and free cash flow of $126.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ECPG's 7.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ECPG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ECPG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ECPG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $100.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ECPG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ECPG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $131.97 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the market data, trailing P/E of 8.4 and ROIC of 60.4% sit alongside a 75% operating margin, indicating strong profitability at a l

Long ECPG at $99.98 targeting $131.97. Per the market data, trailing P/E of 8.4 and ROIC of 60.4% sit alongside a 75% operating margin, indicating strong profitability at a low earnings multiple.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $41.06 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ECPG's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $77.98 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $99.98

Per the RQD rating and financials, the FCF yield of 5.85% and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 are modest, and the RISK WATCH headline flags op

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ECPG: Per the RQD rating and financials, the FCF yield of 5.85% and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 are modest, and the RISK WATCH headline flags open risk concerns.. At 8.4x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Finance Companies triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE