ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

FAST // Fastenal Company

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000815556 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • RETAIL: Building Materials
$51.91 ▼ -0.64 (-1.22%)
MKT CAP: $60.29B • VOL: 11.23M
FAST // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 80/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
80 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +11% vs NI +9.4% • ROIC-WACC +17.2% • Z 19.35
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 95% • VS 200D +11.1% • RSI 58
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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FAST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.66%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $51.45H $52.55L $51.45C $51.91VOL 6.36M
RES: $53.31SUP: $47.13SMA50: $50.53SMA200: $47.30
$54.03$51.01$48.00$44.99$41.97RES $53.31SUP $47.13$51.912026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
FAST // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 57/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Fastenal Company (FAST) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 27.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (RETAIL: Building Materials), balanced against a 32.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 20.2% operating margin and 27.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 27.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.7% paired with 1.74% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.7% // FCF YLD: 1.74%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 19.35 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 19.35 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 47.9x trailing P/E (44.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 47.9x // EV/EBITDA: 32.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $51.91 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in RETAIL: Building Materials require continuous execution to defend 15.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.3% // D/E: 0.03x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 44.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.02).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 47.9x
FORWARD P/E 44.5x
EV / EBITDA 32.2x
FCF YIELD 1.74%
GROSS MARGIN 45.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 20.2%
NET MARGIN 15.3%
ROIC % 27.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.10
DEBT / EQUITY 0.03x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.67%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.02
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FASTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $47.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>