ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

FOUR // Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001794669 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$42.07 ▲ +2.04 (+5.10%)
MKT CAP: $3.16B • VOL: 1.96M
FOUR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 44/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
44 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +26.6% vs NI -50.1% • ROIC-WACC -0.7% • Z 0.93
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 13% • VS 200D -13.1% • RSI 52.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
5 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.06 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.26
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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FOUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.36%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $39.25H $42.07L $39.25C $42.07VOL 2.67M
RES: $65.59SUP: $32.76SMA50: $40.34SMA200: $46.05
$70.64$60.86$51.08$41.30$31.53RES $65.59SUP $32.76$42.072026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
FOUR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 5.5% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 18.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 8.4% operating margin and 5.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +25.5% paired with 20.13% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +25.5% // FCF YLD: 20.13%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.93 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.93 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.1x trailing P/E (17.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.1x // EV/EBITDA: 18.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $42.07 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 3.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.5% // D/E: 3.15x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 21.1x
FORWARD P/E 17.7x
EV / EBITDA 18.6x
FCF YIELD 20.13%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 8.4%
NET MARGIN 3.5%
ROIC % 5.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +25.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.86
DEBT / EQUITY 3.15x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 52.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FOURPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $38.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>