ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

FRPT // Freshpet Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001611647 ↗
Consumer Staples • Packaged Foods
$67.50 ▲ +1.38 (+2.09%)
MKT CAP: $3.24B • VOL: 1.13M
FRPT // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // C+ (RQD 68) -> B- (RQD 71)
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
71 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 53% • VS 200D +5.7% • RSI 57.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.07 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.14
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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FRPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.20%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $66.12H $67.50L $66.12C $67.50VOL 1.13M
RES: $68.42SUP: $58.79SMA50: $64.88SMA200: $63.87
$79.28$70.38$61.48$52.59$43.69RES $68.42SUP $58.79$67.502026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
FRPT // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) exhibits 40.8% gross margins and 6.4% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Packaged Foods), balanced against a 38.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 40.8% gross profitability converts into 6.9% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.4% // GM: 40.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.0% paired with 5.05% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.0% // FCF YLD: 5.05%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.24 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.24 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 22.8x trailing P/E (19.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 22.8x // EV/EBITDA: 38.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $67.50 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Packaged Foods require continuous execution to defend 12.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 19.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 22.8x
FORWARD P/E 19.2x
EV / EBITDA 38.3x
FCF YIELD 5.05%
GROSS MARGIN 40.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 6.9%
NET MARGIN 12.6%
ROIC % 6.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.90
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 57.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FRPTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $61.76
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for FRPT & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>