ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

GRPN // Groupon Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001490281 ↗
Communication Services • Advertising
$15.58 ▼ -0.17 (-1.08%)
MKT CAP: $633.6M • VOL: 802.0K
GRPN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 47/100 [D] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
46 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +23% vs NI -47.3% • ROIC-WACC +47.9% • Z 0.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +7.5% • P/E N/A • F-SCORE 4/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
7 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.00 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.22
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did GRPN's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever GRPN is Upgraded or Downgraded.

GRPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.32%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $15.75H $15.75L $15.58C $15.58VOL 802.0K
RES: $18.20SUP: $19.03SMA50: $18.43SMA200: $17.65
$31.11$26.08$21.05$16.02$10.99RES $18.20SUP $19.03$15.582026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
GRPN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 79/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) exhibits 90.8% gross margins and 56.5% return on invested capital within Communication Services (Advertising), balanced against a 18.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 90.8% gross profitability converts into 4.7% operating margin and 56.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 56.5% // GM: 90.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.2% paired with 7.54% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.2% // FCF YLD: 7.54%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.20 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.20 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 18.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $15.58 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Advertising require continuous execution to defend -16.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -16.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 18.7x
FCF YIELD 7.54%
GROSS MARGIN 90.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.7%
NET MARGIN -16.7%
ROIC % 56.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +1.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 34.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GRPNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $14.26
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for GRPN & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>