ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

HAYW // Hayward Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001834622 ↗
Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components
$16.81 ▲ +0.69 (+4.28%)
MKT CAP: $3.36B • VOL: 6.68M
HAYW // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +19.8% vs NI +27.7% • ROIC-WACC +1.3% • Z 2.47
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 79% • VS 200D +10.9% • RSI 78
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7% • P/E 19.9x • F-SCORE 9/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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HAYW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.74%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $15.57H $16.81L $15.57C $16.81VOL 5.84M
RES: $17.81SUP: $10.47SMA50: $13.06SMA200: $14.54
$17.85$16.06$14.27$12.48$10.68RES $17.81SUP $10.47$16.812026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
HAYW // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Hayward Holdings Inc. (HAYW) exhibits 48.0% gross margins and 9.6% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 13.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 48.0% gross profitability converts into 20.8% operating margin and 9.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.6% // GM: 48.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +6.7% paired with 7.01% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +6.7% // FCF YLD: 7.01%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.47 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.47 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.4x trailing P/E (19.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.4x // EV/EBITDA: 13.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $16.81 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 13.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 13.5% // D/E: 0.41x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 19.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.95).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 21.4x
FORWARD P/E 19.9x
EV / EBITDA 13.9x
FCF YIELD 7.01%
GROSS MARGIN 48.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 20.8%
NET MARGIN 13.5%
ROIC % 9.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +6.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.73
DEBT / EQUITY 0.41x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 78.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.95
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // HAYWPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $15.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>