ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

LAD // Lithia Motors Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001023128 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations
$299.72 ▲ +2.66 (+0.90%)
MKT CAP: $6.48B • VOL: 330.7K
LAD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
45 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -92.1% vs NI +2.9% • ROIC-WACC +4% • Z 2.34
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 30% • VS 200D -2.3% • RSI 50.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +0.1% • P/E 7.3x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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LAD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.28%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $297.1H $299.7L $297.1C $299.7VOL 330.7K
RES: $432.6SUP: $260.2SMA50: $318.1SMA200: $306.9
$452.4$398.8$345.2$291.6$237.9RES $432.6SUP $260.2$299.72026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
LAD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) exhibits 15.2% gross margins and 11.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), balanced against a 5.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 15.2% gross profitability converts into 4.2% operating margin and 11.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 11.1% // GM: 15.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.0% paired with 0.09% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.0% // FCF YLD: 0.09%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.34 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.34 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 7.8x trailing P/E (7.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 7.8x // EV/EBITDA: 5.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $299.72 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations require continuous execution to defend 2.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.2% // D/E: 1.18x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 7.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.93).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 7.8x
FORWARD P/E 7.3x
EV / EBITDA 5.9x
FCF YIELD 0.09%
GROSS MARGIN 15.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.2%
NET MARGIN 2.2%
ROIC % 11.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $37.91
DEBT / EQUITY 1.18x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.86%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.93
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LADPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $274.25
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>