ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

LITE // Lumentum Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001633978 ↗
Communication Services • Telecommunications Equipment
$840.70 ▼ -78.83 (-8.57%)
MKT CAP: $83.29B • VOL: 7.73M
LITE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -3.9% • Z 13.01
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 77% • VS 200D +13.9% • RSI 51.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.08 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.38
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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LITE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.88%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $914.0H $919.5L $840.7C $840.7VOL 7.50M
RES: $1,207.1SUP: $728.1SMA50: $925.8SMA200: $807.0
$1,196.2$975.9$755.6$535.3$315.0RES $1,207.1SUP $728.1$840.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
LITE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 85/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) exhibits 41.7% gross margins and 6.2% return on invested capital within Communication Services (Telecommunications Equipment), balanced against a 91.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.7% gross profitability converts into 17.4% operating margin and 6.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.2% // GM: 41.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +83.2% paired with 0.36% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +83.2% // FCF YLD: 0.36%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 13.01 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 13.01 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (36.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 91.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $840.70 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Telecommunications Equipment require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.06x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 36.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.08).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 36.0x
EV / EBITDA 91.0x
FCF YIELD 0.36%
GROSS MARGIN 41.7%
OPERATING MARGIN 17.4%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % 6.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +83.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-76.56
DEBT / EQUITY 0.06x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.08
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LITEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $769.27
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>