LYB // LyondellBasell Industries NV Class A (Netherlands)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001489393 ↗

Materials • Major Chemicals

$68.64 ▲ +3.27 (+5.00%)

MKT CAP: $21.12B • VOL: 4.65M

52W L $42 52W H $84

ROARABLE / RQD

D+ • 57/100

ALTMAN Z

2.07 GREY

PIOTROSKI

5 / 9

LYB // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 57/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-02

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

57 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF -80.6% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -10.6% • Z 2.07

02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

13 / 20

SOLID

52W RANGE 56% • VS 200D +2.2% • RSI 55

03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.14 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.23

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

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ALERT

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LYB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.73%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $67.13H $68.64L $65.37C $68.64VOL 3.81M

RES: $68.74SUP: $50.73SMA50: $62.70SMA200: $63.98

LYB // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 32/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

LyondellBasell Industries NV Class A (Netherlands) (LYB) exhibits 8.5% gross margins and -2.5% return on invested capital within Materials (Major Chemicals), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 8.5% gross profitability converts into -1.4% operating margin and -2.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -2.5% // GM: 8.5%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -9.7% paired with 1.82% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -9.7% // FCF YLD: 1.82%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.07 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.07 // F-SCORE: 5/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $68.64 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Chemicals require continuous execution to defend -2.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -2.4% // D/E: 0.68x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E —

FORWARD P/E 23.0x

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD 1.82%

GROSS MARGIN 8.5%

OPERATING MARGIN -1.4%

NET MARGIN -2.4%

ROIC % -2.5%

REV GROWTH YOY -9.7%

DILUTED EPS TTM $-2.28

DEBT / EQUITY 0.68x

DIVIDEND YIELD 8.35%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.0

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LYBPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $62.81

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for LYB & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

LYB VS LIN

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

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LYB VS RIO

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION